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A Hard Date for a Hard Brexit

Theresa May has affirmed that the UK will be leaving the EU at 11pm UTC on the Friday 29th March 2019, and this will be enshrined into law.

This sounds very strong, but actually it's another unforced error by a UK government out of its depth. So far the government have gotten away with its incompetence because the effects of their folly haven't become apparent yet, and won't until Saturday 30th March 2019. This gives a whole weekend of Brexit euphoria, before things start to go wrong on April Fools day 2019.

These tough-sounding red lines are designed for two audiences. Firstly, Brexiters are getting jittery and need reassurance. They want out before EU directive 2016/1164 on tax avoidance comes into force. Secondly, Britain is playing a high-stakes game of bluff with the EU, whereby if the UK sounds serious, the EU may be forced into concessions. Unfortunately the EU is too big to be bullied, and this is a strategic blunder.

The biggest problem with this date is that cutting off your options is a really bad idea, especially if the UK isn't ready to leave. Secondly, a transitional period must in practise involve an extension to EU membership, as the time to draw up alternatives is running out fast. Law making takes time, and if the UK has days left before a hard Brexit, there's not enough time to amend the necessary legislation.

All this makes a no deal Brexit much more likely.  Britain can of course manage outside of the EU in the long run, but the transition must be managed delicately and be prepared for properly. So far the UK has shown nothing of this. So without any infrastructure in place, no IT systems, agreements, departments or procedures in place, we are suddenly expecting everything to be fine. It won't be.

One of two things will happen. Either the UK will yield to the EU demands, and remain under the ECJ and all EU law for a while longer, or the UK will crash out. Let's be completely clear. Brexiters will try to blame the ensuing chaos on the EU, but the EU has so far been generous and magnanimous, and remember it's the UK that's leaving. The blame lies entirely with Theresa May and Brexiters pursuing an unnecessary, unrealistic and hard Brexit. They committed the ultimate mistake of believing their own hubris.

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