Article 50 (A50) represents the point of no return, where the UK formally announces that it is withdrawing from the EU. The real point of no return was of course the referendum result, but A50 represents the next milestone in the Brexit process.
Those calling for an early A50 argue that there is no benefit to delaying, as this just adds uncertainty and delays the entire process and inevitable recovery. They (mainly Leavers) don't want the referendum result annulled. Those who want to delay A50 say that we need time to prepare (not least, set up a new department for Brexit), and entertain the notion of pre-negotiations, as well as buying time to set up trade deals elsewhere in the world.
The EU is very clear that there can be no exit negotiations until Article 50 has been triggered, and it looks very unwilling to compromise.
The markets have taken the Brexit vote relatively calmly, and so far it's been very smooth going. This is because nothing has actually happened yet, and won't actually change until 2 years after A50. But I would liken it to crossing the event horizon of a black hole. We may not notice much now, but very soon things will get pretty unpleasant. People (mainly Remainers) are panicking, not because things are bad now, but because they predict that things will get extremely messy in the future.
But there are enough people talking positively about Brexit, and the market data has not changed too much, that it will lull the government into a false sense of security. The economists have said their piece, and there's no point repeating it. Theresa May has surrounded herself with enough Euroskeptic ministers that she will be convinced that a full Brexit will not a catastrophe. I hope they are right. And it's true, nobody will actually die, we'll just be a lot poorer.
So now we are all waiting for A50. There's a debate in the Commons scheduled for 5th September. Theresa May has previously said that A50 won't be triggered this year, but I think she should. Brexit is an unstoppable juggernaut, and the sooner we get through this the better.
Those calling for an early A50 argue that there is no benefit to delaying, as this just adds uncertainty and delays the entire process and inevitable recovery. They (mainly Leavers) don't want the referendum result annulled. Those who want to delay A50 say that we need time to prepare (not least, set up a new department for Brexit), and entertain the notion of pre-negotiations, as well as buying time to set up trade deals elsewhere in the world.
The EU is very clear that there can be no exit negotiations until Article 50 has been triggered, and it looks very unwilling to compromise.
The markets have taken the Brexit vote relatively calmly, and so far it's been very smooth going. This is because nothing has actually happened yet, and won't actually change until 2 years after A50. But I would liken it to crossing the event horizon of a black hole. We may not notice much now, but very soon things will get pretty unpleasant. People (mainly Remainers) are panicking, not because things are bad now, but because they predict that things will get extremely messy in the future.
But there are enough people talking positively about Brexit, and the market data has not changed too much, that it will lull the government into a false sense of security. The economists have said their piece, and there's no point repeating it. Theresa May has surrounded herself with enough Euroskeptic ministers that she will be convinced that a full Brexit will not a catastrophe. I hope they are right. And it's true, nobody will actually die, we'll just be a lot poorer.
So now we are all waiting for A50. There's a debate in the Commons scheduled for 5th September. Theresa May has previously said that A50 won't be triggered this year, but I think she should. Brexit is an unstoppable juggernaut, and the sooner we get through this the better.
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