Nobody is happy with Theresa May's withdrawal agreement. To Remainers like myself, it's simply worse than EU membership. To Leavers, it represents the UK tied to the EU rules in perpetuity without any say in them, and with no real power to unilaterally withdraw. As expected, it confirms the December 2017 joint report , that the UK will be bound to the rules of the EU custom's union and internal market until replaced by future agreements. The EU have made a big concession is allowing the UK as a whole to remain in the customs union, when they only really wanted to extend this to Northern Ireland. From Britain's perspective, this is actually a really good deal. The threat of breaking up the union, the threat of no-deal chaos, and a cliff-edge on the negotiations is lifted. Of course, Britain's influence in Europe is gone, but that was always going to be the case. Industry can now continue to trade unimpeded for a while. Great Britain (probably) has the option to
Here is how I see Brexit evolving over the next years. It is completely unscientific. Nevertheless it has helped me get a handle on what the hell is going to happen. EU membership In the first quarter of 2019, the UK is still a full member of the EU. There is no chance that the UK will agree with the EU to leave earlier than March 2019. In March 2019, there's a small, 5% chance, that the UK withdraws Article 50 since it simply isn't ready, and perhaps the deal has been rejected and facing the choice between no deal and EU membership, parliament or the people choose EU membership. However, public opinion isn't shifting significantly, and there really isn't time to turn things around before then. As time progresses there's a chance that an Article 50 extension converts back into EU membership. Looking further to 2021-2025, the reality of both hard and soft Brexits will make the UK public opinion shift towards rejoining the EU. So therefore I put a 60% probab