Here is how I see Brexit evolving over the next years. It is completely unscientific. Nevertheless it has helped me get a handle on what the hell is going to happen.
EU membership
In the first quarter of 2019, the UK is still a full member of the EU. There is no chance that the UK will agree with the EU to leave earlier than March 2019.
In March 2019, there's a small, 5% chance, that the UK withdraws Article 50 since it simply isn't ready, and perhaps the deal has been rejected and facing the choice between no deal and EU membership, parliament or the people choose EU membership. However, public opinion isn't shifting significantly, and there really isn't time to turn things around before then.
As time progresses there's a chance that an Article 50 extension converts back into EU membership. Looking further to 2021-2025, the reality of both hard and soft Brexits will make the UK public opinion shift towards rejoining the EU.
So therefore I put a 60% probability that the UK is once again an EU member by 2030.
Article 50 extension
Come March 2019, the UK is looking decidedly unprepared and lacks a solution on Northern Ireland. Faced between "no deal" and an extension, the UK parliament and government would probably choose an extension, and the EU would probably grant it. This is around 40% likely, but as time progresses, this diminishes rapidly since neither side wants a perpetual extension, and could evolve into either a chaotic WTO, or a more formal transition period.
EU transition in
In this scenario, the UK is effectively an EU member, but has not formalised its membership. Such a status would occur when the UK formally abandons Brexit, and is in the process of rejoining. This could occur quite shortly after a chaotic hard Brexit, if public opinion turns sharply against Brexit.
EU transition out
In this scenario, the UK is still planning on Brexiting, and is within a formal transition period with the EU. The only difference is the direction of travel.
BINO/ultrasoft Brexit
Brexit in name only (BINO) is the softest Brexit, perhaps a tweaked membership where the UK has formally exited but is a semi-permanent state of affairs. This isn't a stable outcome because it really is much less satisfactory for the UK and full EU membership is preferable, so I doubt this will endure to 2030.
BINO may become a kind of minimal Brexit that the UK tries to achieve without damaging either the peace in Northern Ireland or manufacturing, services and finance.
EFTA membership
EFTA membership could be a stable outcome. It has many drawbacks. But the UK could aim for this, before perhaps giving up on it in 2025-2030 and returning to EU membership transition in and then EU membership. It's possible that EFTA is a stepping stone out of the EU, towards a FTA.
Medium "Chequers" deal
The EU have already rejected the Chequers text. However, it could be used as a basis for a different type of "medium" Brexit. It does not seem like a likely outcome as there has been so much objection to this. Nevertheless, a "medium" Brexit compromise is at least possible long term, say with a 5% probability.
CETA+ Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
This is the default "hard Brexit" scenario where the UK has left the Customs Union and Single Market. It won't happen before 2021 because the UK would need a transition first, and maybe a transition after that. Even if the UK-EU separation is acrimonious, both sides are in favour of some sort of trade deal.
Mitigated WTO
This is where the EU and UK have failed to reach a trade deal but nevertheless some arrangements are in place to prevent complete chaos. This could occur following a chaotic WTO, after which arrangements are hastily put in place.
Chaotic WTO
The chaotic WTO is the cliff-edge scenario where planes cease to fly and Kent gets gridlocked. Guesses vary as to how likely this really is, since surely our politicians couldn't be that mad or incompetent? However it's entirely possible that Brexit Ultras like Johnson or Mogg will be at the helm by then, or that the UK doesn't have a government or is completely deadlocked.
EU membership
In the first quarter of 2019, the UK is still a full member of the EU. There is no chance that the UK will agree with the EU to leave earlier than March 2019.
In March 2019, there's a small, 5% chance, that the UK withdraws Article 50 since it simply isn't ready, and perhaps the deal has been rejected and facing the choice between no deal and EU membership, parliament or the people choose EU membership. However, public opinion isn't shifting significantly, and there really isn't time to turn things around before then.
As time progresses there's a chance that an Article 50 extension converts back into EU membership. Looking further to 2021-2025, the reality of both hard and soft Brexits will make the UK public opinion shift towards rejoining the EU.
So therefore I put a 60% probability that the UK is once again an EU member by 2030.
Article 50 extension
Come March 2019, the UK is looking decidedly unprepared and lacks a solution on Northern Ireland. Faced between "no deal" and an extension, the UK parliament and government would probably choose an extension, and the EU would probably grant it. This is around 40% likely, but as time progresses, this diminishes rapidly since neither side wants a perpetual extension, and could evolve into either a chaotic WTO, or a more formal transition period.
EU transition in
In this scenario, the UK is effectively an EU member, but has not formalised its membership. Such a status would occur when the UK formally abandons Brexit, and is in the process of rejoining. This could occur quite shortly after a chaotic hard Brexit, if public opinion turns sharply against Brexit.
EU transition out
In this scenario, the UK is still planning on Brexiting, and is within a formal transition period with the EU. The only difference is the direction of travel.
BINO/ultrasoft Brexit
Brexit in name only (BINO) is the softest Brexit, perhaps a tweaked membership where the UK has formally exited but is a semi-permanent state of affairs. This isn't a stable outcome because it really is much less satisfactory for the UK and full EU membership is preferable, so I doubt this will endure to 2030.
BINO may become a kind of minimal Brexit that the UK tries to achieve without damaging either the peace in Northern Ireland or manufacturing, services and finance.
EFTA membership
EFTA membership could be a stable outcome. It has many drawbacks. But the UK could aim for this, before perhaps giving up on it in 2025-2030 and returning to EU membership transition in and then EU membership. It's possible that EFTA is a stepping stone out of the EU, towards a FTA.
Medium "Chequers" deal
The EU have already rejected the Chequers text. However, it could be used as a basis for a different type of "medium" Brexit. It does not seem like a likely outcome as there has been so much objection to this. Nevertheless, a "medium" Brexit compromise is at least possible long term, say with a 5% probability.
CETA+ Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
This is the default "hard Brexit" scenario where the UK has left the Customs Union and Single Market. It won't happen before 2021 because the UK would need a transition first, and maybe a transition after that. Even if the UK-EU separation is acrimonious, both sides are in favour of some sort of trade deal.
Mitigated WTO
This is where the EU and UK have failed to reach a trade deal but nevertheless some arrangements are in place to prevent complete chaos. This could occur following a chaotic WTO, after which arrangements are hastily put in place.
Chaotic WTO
The chaotic WTO is the cliff-edge scenario where planes cease to fly and Kent gets gridlocked. Guesses vary as to how likely this really is, since surely our politicians couldn't be that mad or incompetent? However it's entirely possible that Brexit Ultras like Johnson or Mogg will be at the helm by then, or that the UK doesn't have a government or is completely deadlocked.
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