Here is how I see Brexit evolving over the next years. It is completely unscientific. Nevertheless it has helped me get a handle on what the hell is going to happen. EU membership In the first quarter of 2019, the UK is still a full member of the EU. There is no chance that the UK will agree with the EU to leave earlier than March 2019. In March 2019, there's a small, 5% chance, that the UK withdraws Article 50 since it simply isn't ready, and perhaps the deal has been rejected and facing the choice between no deal and EU membership, parliament or the people choose EU membership. However, public opinion isn't shifting significantly, and there really isn't time to turn things around before then. As time progresses there's a chance that an Article 50 extension converts back into EU membership. Looking further to 2021-2025, the reality of both hard and soft Brexits will make the UK public opinion shift towards rejoining the EU. So therefore I put a 60% probab
