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Breaking the Article 50 Impasse

Andrew Tyrie overestimates the UK's control over when the UK government can invoke Article 50. As with much of the Brexit debate, hope and aspiration trump cold hard reality.

The next few months will see a lot of work by the UK government setting up new departments and policy positions relating to the triggering of Article 50 and Britain's exit from the EU. This is a sensible and necessary delay. However this article by The Independent makes the case that the UK should delay invoking Article 50 until we establish an informal agreement with the EU on our exit terms.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-andrew-tyrie-must-manage-unrealistic-expectations-warns-tory-mp-a7220681.html

This is very desirable from the UK's perspective, but flatly contradicts statements by the EU (including direct statements by Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk and Cecilia Malmström, as well as official EU policy) that no talks can happen prior to invoking Article 50.  The EU's position on the four freedoms is also very clear. In contrast, the UK's position is completely unclear.

So how will this impasse play out? To resolve these two alternative realities, we need to see who is holding the cards.

The EU can wait this one out, as it has no desire or pressure to yield to Britain's demands. Once Article 50 has been triggered, the EU is in the dominant bargaining position. The UK on the other hand is under immense pressure to trigger Article 50, ideally so it can conclude before the next general election. So the EU can simply wait this one out whilst Britain jumps up and down like a spoilt child. The UK's hand will be forced, as the onus is on the UK to leave.

Comments

Galileo said…
Sorry for this offtopic, but, are you the author of Visula programming language? I'm a fan for this programming concept. Unfortunately, Visula seems to have disappeared from the Internet. What happened?
12:54 pm
Calum Grant said…
Hi Galileo - Yes!

I just saw that the link is dead. Try http://www.calumgrant.net/projects/visula/index.html

Basically it was a personal project and there wasn't too much interest. Glad you liked it.
9:06 pm
Galileo said…
Thanks for the link. I regret that did not continue with this line of research. I hope you consider releasing the source code.
6:21 pm
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