Yesterday was the last hope of averting Brexit - where the UK parliament voted to notify the EU that the UK was leaving. There was a possibility that enough MPs who were pro-EU and think Brexit would be a disaster would vote with their conscience, or that the UK Labour party would oppose the motion. There was also the hope that public opinion would have shifted by now as it became apparent that every single one of Leave's promises and projections were false. There would never be £350m per week for the NHS, and that we are unlikely to get a trade deal with EU and maintain access, let alone free trade or services with the EU single market. We will all be poorer.
Since public opinion is still apparently in favour of Brexit, MPs have been sat like rabbits in headlights watching Brexit approach them. Nobody really believes in it, and even Brexit supporters are quietly admitting their lies that there will be a financial cost, but stubbornly insist that the prize of "sovereignty" will be worth it. (I really disagree with the last point. Every trade deal involves compromise where you hope to gain more than you lose. The EU is just one massive trade deal which was definitely working in our favour.)
Whilst I reserve my democratic right to "moan"/hold the government to account, I think Brexit is inevitable. I thought this from June 24th, but as the deadline looms, I have been surprised by the ruthless efficiency with which Theresa May's government has acted. Of course, very little has been achieved, other than to explore our potential position and realise that a compromise deal was unlikely, just as Remain said it would be, but Leave lied about. We've also seen clarity regarding the "red lines", which again seems to preclude any meaningful membership of the single market.
Last August (link), I tried to predict the type of Brexit we would have. At this time, the government had not set out its position, and nobody thought that a vote to leave was a mandate for a "hard Brexit", given how Leave and many prominent leavers had been promising access to the single market, or "EEA+" as Boris Johnson said. Nevertheless, I was sceptical about this possibility, and put the likelihood of "hard Brexit" at 40%. Now I put this at 70%, as if Brexit goes ahead, this is the only thing that makes sense.
- Full market access (total
50%25%) - EEA-style (
15%3%) - A temporary extension (
25%15%) - Remain in EU (
10%7%) - Partial market access (
10%5%) - No market access (
40%70%)
The exit negotiations will not go well for Britain. The EU is the much larger partner, and contrary to Leave delusions, has far less to lose. The EU has so far stuck to its guns on "no negotiation before notification", the "four freedoms", and "first leave, then negotiate access." The UK has very little influence in this as we are the ones leaving. Basically, the EU will dictate what will happen.
If we look further ahead, I think a hard Brexit will be far more painful than even the direst predictions of Remain. It's not just scaremongering, and Project Fear will become Project Fact, and the Post-Truth will become Pre-Truth. As Remain predicted, many businesses will move out of the UK during the negotiation period as the reality of WTO dawns. But things will only really bite after the UK has formally left the EU, by which time it will be too late to cancel the whole stupid thing. Our trade with the EU will collapse and drive a lot of companies bankrupt. It will be horrible. (The cultural/educational/social aspects are equally important but I won't talk about those here.)
All of this is due to the two year deadline, which severely disadvantages the UK during the negotiations. The UK can survive outside the EU, of course, but the abrupt adjustment as our trade links are severed will cause big problems, and people will suddenly notice the increased difficulty, border controls and red tape when dealing with Europe. There will be admin chaos as nationals are repatriated or apply for visas and health care.
Public finances will be horrible, because of the reduced tax revenues, the governments attempts to spend its way out of recessions, renationalisations and attempts to woo foreign investment with tax breaks. The UK's cost of borrowing will top 10%, and within 5 years, the pound will have parity with the Euro, even the dollar.
The question is, how long will the UK put up with this before admitting its mistake to leave the EU? And how long before Britain formally reapplies to join the EU? This depends on exactly how bad things get, and of course there's a great deal of uncertainty. This in turn will be determined on what kind of access/transitional arrangements are made during the exit negotiations, but as I indicated above, I think the transition will be abrupt.
Within 5 years, the consensus in the UK will be that Brexit was a terrible mistake, and within 10 years, Britain will have started the process to reapply to the EU.
Eventually there will be a public enquiry, and recriminations will last for decades. The current generation of politicians who let this happen will be toast.
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