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The BMW Fallacy

Read a few interesting things today. James Dyson said on the Andrew Marr show that Brexit offers a fantastic opportunity for the UK, and that Britain should walk away from negotiations and the EU will come running after us with an offer. [1]

The comments about this on the Get Britain Out of the EU! Facebook page were in full agreement, of course:
Of course James Dyson is right - they NEED us. They want to trade with us. They will be queuing to strike a deal. Then we can all get on with it and it won't cost billions! 
I agree, the Eu needs Britain far more than Britain needs the Eu. Leave now, without a deal, You will have one and a good one within days. 
I agree with him, he said that it was appalling that they are demanding more money to talk to us, why can't our government realize that the E U will lose out in a "no deal" with us? I have always wanted NO deal with them anyway!!
Similar sentiments have been expressed by Yanis Varoufakis, Greek minister of finance during the Greek debt crisis, who suggested the same failed negotiating tactic: stand firm and wait for their offer. This position has been savaged by Pavlos Eleftheriadis [2], claiming that Yanis lead Greece to the brink of disaster, and is no hero. Pavlos' conclusion is that brinkmanship with the EU will never succeed and is a really terrible strategy.

Businessman John Caudwell threw a more conciliatory tone [3], echoing Daniel Hannan's view that a deal between the EU and the UK is in everyone's best interests.

This collective delusion is the "BMW Fallacy". It was a popular myth for a year that a no-deal outcome would be unthinkable because German car makers would pressure the German government, who would in turn pressure the EU into cutting the UK a deal in order to sell more cars to the UK. Yet the German car makers have been crystal clear that the UK can expect no help from them [4].

The idea is that common sense must prevail, and that economic arguments trump all others. But Brexit was won on emotion and ideology, on the sacrifice of economics for the sake of sovereignty, yet we now expect this to no longer apply. The EU has its principles too, and needs to consider the collective good. There is a lot of bad blood between the EU and the UK, due mainly to mistakes made by UK ministers, and that the UK being difficult about its financial commitments and the rights of citizens is doing nothing to help the situation.

The armchair experts in Get Britain Out have fallen silent on the idea of "German car makers", but the sentiment remains. The EU can be a little flexible of course, but ultimately it neither needs, wants or is able to break its rules for the sake of Britain.

Like Yanis Varoufakis, the Brexit side are leading the UK down a blind alleyway by badly misjudging the situation.

Sources
  1. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/878679/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Sir-James-Dyson-BBC-The-Andrew-Marr-Show-European-Union-video
  2. http://verfassungsblog.de/losing-to-the-european-union-a-review-of-yanis-varoufakis-book-adults-in-the-room/
  3. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/brexit-hysteria-sides-political-divide-unnecessary-time-negotiate-deal-works-everyone/
  4. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit

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