This week was punctuated by a series of speeches by the UK government on Brexit, by foreign secretary Boris Johnson, prime minister Theresa May, trade secretary Liam Fox and as well as a speech by the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.
What have we learned? That the UK and the EU are still very far apart, that the UK is still aiming for a deal that simply doesn't exist, that any attempts to soften the Brexit stance get accusations of betraying the will of the people, and somehow weakening Britain's hand in the negotiations. Nobody mentioned the Irish border, apart from Boris Johnson who describes it as a non-issue and would happily throw the Good Friday Agreement under the proverbial red Brexit bus. The speeches themselves were largely content-free, with the leading Brexiteers (Corbyn included) attempting some kind of fudge and avoiding the difficult issues.
Meanwhile, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has noted that there are very many outstanding issues relating to transition, that no progress has been made since December, and that the EU are preparing draft texts since the UK has no idea. This was underlined by a conversation between German chancellor Angela Merkel, and Theresa May, where Merkel asked May what the UK wanted from Brexit, and Theresa May was only able to respond "make me an offer."
Whilst I understand that the UK is trying to put a brave face on Brexit, we are putting off hard decisions that will make most people very unhappy indeed. Remaining will make 52% (and falling) of voters unhappy. EEA membership will satisfy very few, and a hard Brexit will upset many people indeed. Only the unicorn Brexit, where the UK keeps all benefits of the single market without being a member will be a good outcome.
It is deeply disappointing that the UK government are either too stupid, too cowardly, or too deceitful to face up to the reality that a unicorn Brexit isn't possible. So instead, hard decisions are being put off again and again.
If the government were trying to sabotage Brexit, it could not be doing a better job. But I have long given up hope that this is a deliberate ploy by Theresa May, as she simply isn't that bright. The longer the government delays, the closer we get towards a cliff-edge moment between staying in a little longer, or crashing out, and each time, the UK will choose to stay in a little longer.
But the EU's patience is not infinite. It actually doesn't want the UK to remain in limbo. At some point the UK will need to sign the deal, composed entirely by the EU, and make preparations to leave. Northern Ireland will remain in the single market and customs union of course. Hard Brexiters will have an eppy, and the Conservative Party will go into meltdown, but screw them. The right time to speak up never came and now it's too late.
The final "deal", as if we are buying a cheap used car, will face a rocky path through the UK parliament. A referendum on the final deal, although unlikely, would be roundly rejected. At this point, only the die-hard leavers, and die-hard remainers, the two ends of a political horseshoe, will be satisfied. Let us resolve this once and for all! Let's have this no-deal Brexit, see the folly, and purge Brexit from Britain!
IT systems will be built. Land will be bought for customs depots and lorry parks. New agencies will be planned. Some people will be stocking up on supplies, whilst others are buying tea cakes and union flag bunting. The UK has prepared its bluff, now waits for the EU to make its real offer.
On the eve of Brexit, the most expensive fireworks in history go off as Big Ben chimes midnight. Many Britons party, whilst those with jobs to go to lie awake wondering what the new day will bring. David Davis and DExEU have packed up, knowing their job is done, whilst furtively waiting for that phone call from the EU to save them.
Then the borders start to clog up. The government IT system turned out to be a mock-up running on some guy's laptop. Supplies in shops start running low. Many businesses and industries have temporary closures whilst the mess is sorted out. The Prime Minister makes hurried speeches without taking any questions. Twitter falls silent of Leavers, whilst erupting in a fantasia for Remain. Leading Brexiters are nowhere to be seen, fearing for their safety, and quietly suspending their social media accounts. For once, there are no leavers on BBC Question Time.
Right wing tabloids threaten war with the EU, but nobody believes their nonsense any more.
Protests start to gather in major cities. Some large manufacturers close factories, adding to their numbers. People start to get angry, very angry. The pressure on the government becomes unbearable. Eventually, the UK goes cap in hand to the EU, and within days the UK has agreed to rejoin the single market and customs union on a temporary basis. In time, this becomes permanent. Borders open, and lorries and people once again flow freely.
Britain will be permanently wounded from its experience, and will never again be a major player in Europe. But, it will have learnt its lesson, found its rightful place in the world, and the Brexit issue will have been resolved.
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